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North Korean Belief Systems about South Korea after the Hanoi Summit 상세보기 화면
제목 North Korean Belief Systems about South Korea after the Hanoi Summit
저자 Park, Daekwang / Song, Whasup
연구센터 안보전략
발행년도 2021
첨부파일

<Background and Purpose>

Analyzing North Korean Perspectives on Policy towards South Korea, post-Hanoi.

   ◎  After the Hanoi Summit, Pyongyang has been refusing to take part in talks with Seoul.

   ◎  It is thus important to analyze the policy implications of such an uncooperative and belligerent stance of North Korea.

      - Analysis of the North Korean regime’s perceptions of the value of improving inter-Korean relations and its mindset on the optimal strategy and tactics towards the South.

      - Understand implications for the likelihood of improved inter-Korean relations and Seoul’s strategy towards Pyongyang.

 

<Research Results>

Analysis of North Korean regime’s belief systems about the South, and Policy Insights & Policy recommendations.

   ◎  Analysis of North Korean beliefs about South Korea and their policy implications.

      - Pyongyang has a very dim view of the value of improving relations with Seoul, and continues to believe that a strategy of conflict and risk-taking is the most optimal.

      - Pyongyang, however, also believes that the use of military force as a coercive method is highly ineffective.

      - Pyongyang is willing to risk deteriorations of inter-Korean relations if that means being able to achieve its own objectives. Thus, unless Seoul accedes to the key demands, it will be very difficult to swiftly improve inter-Korean relations.

   ◎  Recommendations for South Korea’s overall policy towards North Korea.

      - In the bigger picture, it may be possible to choose from maintaining the status quo, fully accepting Pyongyang’s key demands, or a tit-for-tat approach to North Korean confrontations.

      - Considering the pros and cons of each option, for now it would be best to maintain the current policy trajectory, yet be flexibly disposed to any changes in Pyongyang’s behavior.

  

저자 소개

저자 사진
박대광 (Park Dae-Kwang/朴大光)
  • 부서 : 안보전략연구센터(국방전략연구실)
  • 직급 : 국방전문연구위원
  • 전문분야 : 우주안보전략, 대북정책
  • 연락처 : 02-961-1868
저자 사진
송화섭 (SONG WHASUP/宋和燮)
  • 부서 : 안보전략연구센터(국제전략연구실)
  • 직급 : 책임연구위원
  • 전문분야 : 미일동맹, 일본군사, 한일협력
  • 연락처 : 02-961-1619
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