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Outlook on North Korea’s Inter-Korean Arms Control in Line with the New Economy-Oriented Initiative 상세보기 화면
제목 Outlook on North Korea’s Inter-Korean Arms Control in Line with the New Economy-Oriented Initiative
저자 LEE, Choong Koo
연구센터 안보전략
발행년도 2021
첨부파일

<Background and Purpose>

This Research aims to leverage North Korea’s economy-oriented initiative that impacts its military policy direction on making progress in inter-Korean arms control.

   ◎  During the third round of the Seventh Plenary Session in April 2018, North Korea declared that it will focus on economic development to improve the livelihood of its citizens through a “full mobilization of national manpower and resources”.

   ◎  The research looks for the possibility of leveraging the new economic initiative on reducing the number of North Korean provocations and making progress in arms control while the country is executing the new economic initiative.

 

<Research Results>

This Research proposes an outlook of North Korea’s position on inter-Korean arms control and required a South Korean response for each phase of denuclearization.

   ◎  The economic initiative is the national strategy that justifies the Kim Jong-Un regime.

      - When their confidence in security issues rose in early 2018, North Korea decided to focus on economic development, which became a mandatory regime challenge after Kim Jong-Un took office.

      - The economy-oriented initiative encourages for construction of an economically prosperous nation and the execution of a five-year plan, laid in the Seventh Worker’s Party Congress.

   ◎  The gradual change of commitment of military forces to economic activities throughout different phases of denuclearization negotiation.

      - Structural downsizing of the military was contemplated during a smooth negotiation period for denuclearization.

      - Enlarging the military was re-considered to deploy the forces to economic fronts following the stalemate of the denuclearization negotiation.

   ◎  North Korea’s endeavor in economic development, during the early and mid-phase of denuclearization dialogue, carries inter-Korean arms control requirements in parallel.

      - During the times of sanction, North Korea requires operational arms control between Koreas to mobilize the rear military units for economic activities. In case regime instability increases due to internal control problems, the economy-oriented initiative would be weakened as well as the need for inter-Korean arms control.

      - North Korea may consider structural arms control for downsizing its military during the partial denuclearization phase.

      - However, the conditions for arms control would be less attractive for North Korea during the complete and irreversible denuclearization phase. Hence, there shall be a way to secure irreversibility in arms control while agreeing on the appropriate level of sustained military forces in due process.

 

저자 소개

저자 사진
이중구 (Lee Choongkoo/李重九)
  • 부서 : 안보전략연구센터(북한군사연구실)
  • 직급 : 선임연구원
  • 전문분야 : 북한 핵전략, 북중관계, 한국의 대북정책
  • 연락처 : 02-961-1154
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