China’s “gray zone” tactics to intimidate rival claimants in the South China Sea
have become a U.S. concern. Against a backdrop of a recently deepening U.S.-Philippines alliance, this article suggested a gray zone conflict scenario in which
China blockades Filipino resupply vessels for Filipino marines on the Sierra Madre
at Second Thomas Shoal in a fictional late 2020s environment. In this case, the
Philippines would likely request armed U.S. escorts for its resupply vessel. The
United States. can formulate a middle-of-the-road position centered on diplomatic
condemnation against China’s provocations, between a strong response option and
inaction to this gray zone conflict. Also, in this context, the United States would
welcome the ROK’s diplomatic and economic support. For example, the United
States would expect the ROK to participate in U.S. diplomatic efforts by signing
a joint statement through the Quad-Plus. In addition, the United States would also
anticipate ROK assistance to help the Philippines cope with Chinese economic
retaliation in the gray zone crisis.
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